
Report for September 2010 with a look at how solar cycle 24 still isn't going too well and why HF conditions will now start to improve in September and October. Just click on the Podcast headline above or search for G0KYA on iTunes.
Thanks for stopping by. This is where I publish a lot of my features and thoughts on HF propagation, antennas and other ham radio topics. I write for a number of radio magazines, including the RSGB's RadCom and ARRL's QST. I am also chairman of the RSGB's Propagation Studies Committee and produce the weekly HF propagation report for GB2RS. When not playing radio I'm a professional journalist specialising in aerospace, science and technology and am also author of four RSGB books.
Note: You can find Steve's HF short-path propagation prediction charts from the UK at: http://www.infotechcomms.net/propcharts/
Solar conditions still continue to be fairly poor. As I write this on 3 September there are sunspots, but the flux is stubbornly in the mid to high 70s. There have been auroral conditions over the past few days and we can expect to see more unsettled conditions as the cycle progresses.
Having said that, conditions are improving due to seasonal variations. We are heading away from the summer solstice and towards the equinox. The ionosphere is cooling down and its chemistry is changing. Traditionally late September and October are good times and we can expect to see increasing DX being worked.
In some respects this has already started to appear. There have been some good 20m openings from the UK to the West Coast of the USA and Alaska, plus openings to the Far East.
Given the lowish solar flux I think we will continue to see 20m (14MHz) and 17m (18MHz) as the “money bands”, but don't write off 15m (21MHz) which will open to DX, but perhaps not as often as the lower bands.
Late September will be the acid test – and with flux levels in the 70s we are unlikely to see many (any?) trans-Atlantic openings on 10m. Sorry - I would love to be proved wrong!
Now let's look at each band and what you can expect.
The equinox periods provide longer daytime periods than winter, but logically, shorter night-time periods too. These tend to be the best months for working North-South paths, such as UK to South Africa and South America.
On 160m (1.8MHz or Top Band), look for short-skip and DX openings at night. Again, no daylight skip is possible due to absorption, but openings out to 1,300 miles and occasionally further afield can be expected at night with conditions peaking around midnight and again at sunrise (greyline).
80m (3.5MHz) will generally follow the characteristics of Top Band at night, but will also provide good openings out to around 250 miles during the day. These will lengthen to around 500-2,300 miles at night with fairly good DX opportunities at times. At this point in the cycle 80m should still provide good DX around midnight as absorption is still quite low.
40m (7MHz) Forty metres should open to DX in an easterly direction at sunset. Openings to the west should be possible after midnight and should peak just before sunrise. Contacts should be possible during the day, although lower critical frequencies may mean that it is difficult to work other UK stations while perfectly possible to talk to European stations. If the flux rises then 40m may open up to NVIS contacts around the UK.
20m (14MHz) is likely to be the best DX band between sunrise and sunset. The bands may occasionally open after dark, perhaps to the southern hemisphere. Good openings will be possible during daylight hours out to around 2,300 miles.
17m/15m (18MHz/21MHz) should provide fairly good DX openings during daylight hours, especially to Africa and South America, with 17m being open more often than 15m. Once again, 15m may struggle to open during times of low solar flux, but could provide good openings if it rises above about 90-100. Both bands are likely to close after sunset, at least later in the month..
12m/10m (24MHz/28MHz) These could be disappointing bands if the solar flux remains low. If the solar flux heads towards the high 80s/90s then openings will occur on both bands, although 24MHz will open first. If it breaks the 100 mark then expect to see some good DX openings on 10m, especially in late autumn.
You can find HF short-path propagation prediction charts from the UK at:
http://www.infotechcomms.net/propcharts/
You can also listen to Steve G0KYA's HF propagation podcast on iTunes or at http://www.g0kya.blogspot.com/
Steve G0KYA RSGB Propagation Studies Committee


Solar conditions continue to be fairly poor. As I write this on 1 July there is a solitary sunspot (number 1084) which has pushed the solar flux up to 75, but this is nothing special. Strong southward-Bz-pointing solar winds are also causing the K index to rise at times causing havoc.
The sunspot number is currently 11. This doesn't mean there are 11 sunspots – you get 10 for each group and one for each sunspot. So one sunspot in one group (naturally) leads to 10+1 =11.
Some people have suggested that the bands are improving, but I think they are confusing Sporadic E (Es) openings with F layer. This seasonal effect is opening up 20-10m and even 6m and 2m with good, strong openings up to 1,300 miles.
Multi-hop Es is stretching this even further, but we are not seeing an improvement in F layer propagation and Es will be less prevalent as the summer wears on.
Mid-to-late September will be the acid test – and with flux levels in the 70s we are not going to see many trans-Atlantic openings on 10m. Sorry!
In summer, Daytime MUFs are likely to be lower than those of winter. But night-time MUFs may be higher in summer than those in winter, so check 14MHz after dark for some nice surprises. Greyline around sunrise in summer can also be good – Peter M0RYB worked Hawaii on CW using a vertical half wave dipole for 20m that he is testing the other week.
Now let's look at each band and what you can expect.
On 160m (1.8MHz or Top Band), high levels of static and solar absorption mean that the band will not really support sky-wave contacts during the day. During darkness, short-skip openings may occur, but DX may be a rarity. Occasional openings can occur during the hours of darkness, especially around local midnight/early hours.
80m (3.5MHz) will generally follow the characteristics of Top Band with high levels of static, but will also provide good openings out to around 250 miles during the day. Absorption will grow to a maximum at midday for inter-G contacts. DX capabilities will be poor to fair during the hours of darkness.
40m (7MHz) will suffer from high static caused by high numbers of thunderstorms. Nevertheless, night-time openings should be reliable from sunset to sunrise. Local daytime openings will be possible on the whole. Night-time skip distances are likely to be between 500 and 2,300 miles.
20m (14MHz) is still likely to be the best DX band between sunrise and sunset, although the band will be noisier than the winter period and not as reliable for long-haul contacts. The higher MUFs at night mean that 20m may remain open during the evening to DX. Short skip may also be possible due to summer sporadic-E.
17m/15m (18MHz/21MHz) should provide a fair number of DX openings during daylight hours, especially to the southern hemisphere. Once again, 15m may struggle to open at times. Both bands are likely to close after sunset. Sporadic-E will provide good short-skip openings, predominantly in the May-June period.
12m/10m (24MHz/28MHz) are likely to be disappointing bands apart from Sporadic-E openings that will provide regular openings out to around 1,300 miles. Multi-hop sporadic-E openings are possible, providing relatively good, but short-lived paths to DX beyond this range. A typical multi-hop opening might provide brief contacts with the Middle East or USA, although they would be very hard to predict.
You can find HF short-path propagation prediction charts from the UK at:
http://www.infotechcomms.co.uk/propcharts/
You can also listen to Steve G0KYA's HF propagation podcast on iTunes or at http://www.g0kya.blogspot.com/
Steve G0KYA
RSGB Propagation Studies Committee
But the good news is that the Sporadic E season is opening up the bands nicely, albeit for relatively short skip distances.
Look for very strong signals on 10m and 6m, which will suffer from heavy QSB. As the Es clouds move the countries you are able to work will change.
Peak times for Es are mid morning and mid to late afternoon, although look in the evening too.
Otherwise, Daytime MUFs are likely to be lower than those of winter. Night-time MUFs may be higher in summer than those in winter. Note that DX on the low bands, if possible, is unlikely to occur until around midnight or the early hours due to the late sunset.
But for now, let's look at each band and what you can expect.
On 160m (1.8MHz or Top Band), high levels of static and solar absorption mean that the band will not really support sky-wave contacts during the day. During darkness, short-skip openings may occur, but DX may be a rarity. Occasional openings can occur during the hours of darkness, especially around local midnight/early hours.
80m (3.5MHz) will generally follow the characteristics of Top Band with high levels of static, but will also provide good openings out to around 250 miles during the day. Absorption will grow to a maximum at midday for inter-G contacts. DX capabilities will be poor to fair during the hours of darkness.
40m (7MHz) will suffer from high static caused by high numbers of thunderstorms. Nevertheless, night-time openings should be reliable from sunset to sunrise. Local daytime openings will be possible on the whole. Night-time skip distances are likely to be between 500 and 2,300 miles.
20m (14MHz) is still likely to be the best DX band between sunrise and sunset, although the band will be noisier than the winter period and not as reliable for long-haul contacts. The higher MUFs at night mean that 20m may remain open during the evening to DX. Short skip may also be possible due to summer sporadic-E.
17m/15m (18MHz/21MHz) should provide a fair number of DX openings during daylight hours, especially to the southern hemisphere. Once again, 15m may struggle to open at times. Both bands are likely to close after sunset. Sporadic-E will provide good short-skip openings, predominantly in the May-June period.
12m/10m (24MHz/28MHz) are likely to be disappointing bands apart from Sporadic-E openings that will provide regular openings out to around 1,300 miles. Multi-hop sporadic-E openings are possible, providing relatively good, but short-lived paths to DX beyond this range. A typical multi-hop opening might provide brief contacts with the Middle East or USA, although they would be very hard to predict. Propagation via the F layer is unlikely to occur reliably until Autumn.
You can find HF short-path propagation prediction charts from the UK at:
http://www.infotechcomms.co/uk/propcharts/
You can also listen to Steve G0KYA's monthly HF propagation podcast on iTunes.
Steve G0KYA RSGB Propagation Studies Committee
